William Hill re-opens book on Grexit

According to news reports William Hill have re-opened the betting on whether Greece will leave the euro zone before year’s end.

Based on the current odds on offer, punters are putting the chances of a 2015 Grexit (paying 9 to 4 presently) at only 31%. You will only get 1 to 3 for Greece to remain in the euro zone suggesting a 75% chance of this happening.

I say ‘according to reports’ because I wasn’t able to find the Grexit market on their political betting pages. Their long running ‘Who will be the first to exit the EU‘ is still open, with Greece the odds on favourite.

But returning to the Grexit odds of 9 to 4; sounds pretty generous. Paddy Power are are offering a similar 2 to 1 suggesting punters there are also of the belief that a Grexit is unlikely.

Of course the real gambling is taking place in the form of an extremely high stakes game of political poker. Seated at the final table are Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis going all in with a pair of 2’s and trying their best to bluff opponents Angela Merkel, Christine Lagarde and Mario Draghi into thinking they have a full house. The full house being…Grexit will hurt the EU more than it will hurt Greece.

Trouble is, Merkel et al seem pretty convinced there’s no full house and don’t appear at all interesting in relaxing the terms of further bailout funding.

For players without a hand Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis certainly have massive kahunas.

But the punters are probably right. At the eleventh hour, when the bluff hasn’t worked, Greece will probably accept all the bailout terms put to them, well aware that the alternative is very ugly.

But if I was a Greek pensioner, I’d have a few euro on Grexit at 9 to 4 as a hedge!