Last week they both chose to close this market and not because of lack of interest from customers. The bets have been flowing in. Trouble is, they’re all flowing in for Greece and it’s hard to balance a book when all bets are on the same horse! The risk with this type of situation was pointed out by Graham Sharp from William Hill, in an interview with Marketplace.org‘s Kai Ryssdal (Audio of interview above).
“Things can change quite quickly, and if you’re not aware of them, then you might be offering a particular betting price, which as far as you’re concerned, is quite reasonable. But as far as people who know a little bit more than you, it’s virtually the equivalent of giving away free money on Christmas Day.”
It’d be interesting to know how much of the late money for Greece came from members of the Parliament or their connections who do in fact know a little bit more and are looking to squeeze one more pay day from the rubble. Either way, for mine this is a telling sign on the likelihood of Greece’s exit from the EU. More telling than any commentary from the so-called experts. More telling than public comments from the politicians.
The bookies are more often than not closer to the mark.