Live Roulette and the Martingale System

18 October 2009, Staff writer

Martingale System - a brief introduction

One of the most discussed roulette systems out there is the Martingale System.  If I had a dollar for every story I have been told of someone who has used this well worn double-up method at casinos I'd be pretty rich by now.  Of course these stories usually go on to claim that the system has helped it's perpetrator to win thousands. I suspect the truth is a little less spectacular, but that wouldn't make for quite as good a story.

Oscar Wilde did say that one should never let the truth stand in the way of a good story and most roulette system sellers are champions of Oscar's approach to telling a story.  You see, while the Martingale System does at first glance appear logically sound it also, like most casino game systems, has a couple of fatal flaws that trip up most users of the system.  But first a quick look at how it works...

How it works

The premise of the system is simple.

Playing roulette (preferably European) you choose either a red or black bet, and place a bet that is small relative to the table bet maximum.  If you win your bet, pocket the winnings and repeat the bet.

If you lose the initial bet, double your initial bet amount and place the bet on the same color as the initial bet.  If you win this bet, the 1:1 payout will cover both bets and leave you ahead by an amount equal to the initial bet amount.  If you lose this second bet, you simply double-up and repeat the bet.  If you lose again, you simply double up again, and keep on doing so until you eventually win - at which point the amount won will cover all previous bets and leave you with a profit equal to the original bet amount.

Does it work playing live roulette?

This system works every bit as well playing live roulette as it does playing traditional casino roulette.  How well is this?  Well, if you read on you'll discover that it's not that well at all.

Probability on your side...or is it

Supporters of this system use the laws of probability to sell its virtues.  If you continue betting on the same color, eventually it has to come up, and when it does you're ahead.  And from a probability point of view they argue, the odds of a loss on successive spins get lower and lower the longer the loosing streak.  The probability that you lose you first spin is 19/37 (a bet on black or red has 18 possible wins, 19 possible losses out of 37 possible outcomes).  The probability that you loose your first and second spin is 19/37 to the power of 2, or 26%.  The probability that you loose your third spin becomes 19/37 to the power of 3, or 14%, and so on and so forth, until the the odds get pretty damn small.  Loosing 8 in a row runs at less than a 0.5% chance.

Of course where this logic falls over, is that each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent event.  So having lost 7 spins in a row and doubling up for your 8th bet, your odds of losing this spin run at 19/37 and not 0.5%.  All of a sudden your odds of a loss aren't anywhere near as small as you thought, and by now you have a pretty big bet staked on the table.  If your starting bet was a meager $5, your 8th bet will be $640 and you've already dropped $635!

No problem you say. Stay the course and eventually a win will put you ahead right?  Well maybe not.

Woops, forgot the table max bet

Here's where many a Martingale player gets tripped up and surrenders a bundle to the casino.  All roulette tables have a table limit. If the bet you need to make under the system eclipses the table's maximum you're in big trouble. If the table maximum is $500 and you've been unlucky enough to lose 7 in a row starting from a $5 initial bet, all of a sudden a win on your 8th bet still leaves you in the hole.  No matter what bet you start with, and what the table max is, this issue will will rear its ugly head eventually, and when it does, the resulting player loss is a big one.

Of course even before the required bet approaches the table's max, you start to need pretty deep pockets to defend an unlucky streak.  Remember, we're working with exponential not incremental bet increases here and required bet amounts quickly ramp up to uncomfortable levels.

Are casinos scared of this system?

I pose this question because at the end of the day this is the only real litmus test of a system's effectiveness.  Casinos go to great pains to detect and counter blackjack card counters simply because it is an effective means of beating casinos when correctly implemented by skilled players.  I have never heard of a casino, either online or traditional, banning patrons who were employing the Martingale system at the roulette tables!  Why?  Well quite simply of course, it doesn't lose them money.

So have fun with it, but don't expect it to give you an edge over the house.

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