Optimise your live blackjack returns

I wrote a blog post on using a basic strategy card for live blackjack a couple of years back which is now well and truly buried in the blog....so thought it worthwhile adding the card in the forums as well.

Here's the card which is pretty self explanatory.

Attachment 957

Q&A:

1. Q. What's Basic Strategy?
   A. For every possible blackjack scenario (your cards versus dealer up card) there's a mathematically optimal play (ie hit, stand, double or split) - the basic strategy play.
2. Q. How does the above card apply?
   A. It tells you want the basic strategy play is for every possible scenario. Follow the card and you're playing basic strategy...EASY!
3. Q. Does this card apply to all games of blackjack?
   A. No. There are many blackjack rule variations (eg how many decks are being used? can you double after split? etc). A different strategy card will apply to each rule variation.
4. Q. Which live blackjack games does the above card apply to?
   A. Evolution Gaming, Playtech Euro, Playtech Asia
5. Q. What about other platforms...do cards exist for these?
   A. Yes...they'll be out there somewhere (Wizard of Odds is always good starting point). Just make sure you match the game rules with the correct card.
6. Q. If I use the card will I win?
   A. Playing basic strategy doesn't guarantee you a win. In fact it won't even give you an edge over the house. What it will do is minimise the house edge.

Thanks for that LD ... I think all new blackjack players would really benefit from playing basic strategy.


(ps. I've took the liberty of sticking this thread to the first page so this info doesn't also become buried in future)

Thank you so much LD, I will try this.

My simpliest method was to stand on 12 or higher in order to get 0% bust and 100% win when the dealer busts knowingly that the probability for the dealer to bust in general is pretty high. Your table takes into consideration the probability of the dealer to bust based on his first card, this seems great :).

My simpliest method assures me winning more than 50% of the hands so the question is how casino can makes money with blacjack lol.
But when looking at other players, it is so obvious how they make so much money. When the dealer gets 20 or 21, he wins most of the hands (normal). But when the dealer busts, he is still winning more than 50% of the hands because more than 50% of the players bust... those players should think twice before hitting a new card.

Sadly ghost, your simplest method (of standing on 12+) doesn't assure you winning more than 50%....otherwise that would be called 'basic strategy' instead.... and everybody could so easily win and the casinos would stop dealing blackjack!.

The well known blackjack strategy that LD highlights are the way a player can play to minimise the casino advantage.

What most frustrates me about basic strategy is when other players complain at fellow players for not following basic strategy and blame them for the dealer winning. Basic strategy is solely based on the probability of you busting versus the dealer irrespective of any other cards dealt.

If I do the maths with this easy method, I really have a hard time to justify why the casino would win more than 50% of the hands.

With two cards, you have exactly 50%/50% between you and the casino (same probability to get a BJ/ same probability to get a 20).

But then, if you let the dealer playing with more than two cards (instead of you risking to bust), he is not playing optimal method as he has to hit even with a 15 or 16...

Better to combine this easy method for hands in the middle with my other method when you get the last seat to control your last card in parallel of the one from the dealer (see unlimited black jack post).

Totally agree with you about the players who complain. They should wait till they get the last seat instead of blaming other players.. and what they don't recognize: yes, we are changing the "normal order" of the cards by not playing optimal method, but for other players, it is exactly 50% chances that this makes thing better for them or worst. If they can complain sometimes. In other times, they should say thanks.

The principle thing you seem to be glossing over iin your simple maths is the likelihood that the dealer will beat your 12 with 2 cards. Then you need to include all the possible winning hands for the dealer with 3 or more cards.

Doing the maths can get quite heavy, you need to allow for the number of 10 value cards in a shoe etc... it's why somebody else did the maths a long time ago and so blackjack basic strategy came into existence.

If you hae a 12:
- if you get 10, J, Q, K, you bust,
- if you get 1, 2, 3 or 4, your result is exactly the same (12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 are equals as you need the dealer to bust in any case to win),
- if you get 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9, you have only one more card to improve your game than to bust,
If you get 5, it will only get you tie with the dealer if he gets 17. But the dealer can also get 18, 19,.... to 26. So a better game won't guarantee you to win. But if the dealer bust...

Based on the optimal table, maybe, it can worth to hit a new card. But, if you don't know the table, don't hit.
Based on my experience, it works.

Now, seat at a table and watch out how the casino makes money. You will discover very quickly that the only reason why the casino is making money, it is because people bust. So, don't bust ;)

Mathematicaly confirmed with 100% of combinations.
If you never hit a new card starting 12, the house edge is in your favour, not in the casino's favour. I guess if 100% people follow this easy rule, yes, the casinos should change the rules to make money :)

Go trying playing a shoe at a quiet table with no other players.....never hit above 12 then see how many times the dealer wins.

But don't double up your money after each loss and when you lose money don't say it must be rigged.

Just did 20 try alone where I also simulated the dealer. I won 13 times. But doesn't matter, the maths proove the odds are in our side, not in the casino side.

When you play online casinos, when you play progressive bets, nobody can explain why you lose more often times in a row than if you are doing straight bets. Someone should explain this to me. And I am not losing any money in the casinos because if I lose twice in a row, I will switch casino, play double in another casino and strangely the malediction disappears. I am making money with those online casinos by assuming games are rigged. I don't care if people don't believe me, it works for me :).

Statistically playing 20 hands is pointless, it's why I suggested playing a shoe. Of course players win sometimes or break the odds.

As I said before the maths are more complex, but if you follow basic strategy which HAS BEEN calculated a long time ago to be the optimal strategy (certainly better than sticking on 12+) the house edge at Evolution & Playtech casinos is 0.486%.

With your simple method the casino house edge will be larger, fact!

I know it is pointless but I know 100% sure that this method is more efficient that what a normal player would do without the optimal table.

Thanks for the link. I would have to check how they got their numbers and why their optimal method seems less efficient than my easy method LOL

The house edge figures for blackjack are well established and is why casinos are in business, the same as a house edge exists in roulette (as we had before).

Go read more about basic strategy and research the maths eg. search 'Wizard of Odds' as a starting point.

Thanks, I found out why their numbers are different and I still believe house edge is in my favour. By playing my method, the dealer should stop at 15 instead of 17 to have the best house edge possible and 16 would be sufficient to make the house edge in his side.

Yesterday's results in a real casino:
Bet range: 5 - 100
Numbers of hands and total numbers of players: 5
I didn't get the last seat (and I don't know yet the optimal table) so just used the easy method (don't hit after 12).
Used progressive bets: 5, 10, 20 and 40 (I have never had to go higher than 40).
Number of hands played: 87,
Number of hands won: 50 (my target) - total win 230$ + 20$ tips for the dealer,
% hands won: 57%
Number of time dealer busted: 26 (30% of hands)

As you said, it doesn't mean anything but in my opinion, if the house edge is 49.5% or 50.5%, it is the same.

Quote:

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+ 20$ tips for the dealer

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btw. Playtech dealers also DON'T get their tips.


but maybe it helps bolster your edge with your basic strategy beating method of standing on 12+, however misguided it really is :p.

I hope their salary is good because, other the fact that online casino claims winning several billions dollars per month, so many people around the world are watching the Playtech dealers.

I tried the optimal method on 40 hands on unlimited blackjack online, straight bet 5$ each and betting on only one hand per turn.
Won 17 hands (42.5% - lost 7.5$),
Number of times the optimal method made me win: 1,
Number of times the optimal method made me lose: 4.

Then, I decided to get back my money with one win on progressive bet starting at 10$.
- first bet: I got 19, the dealer got 20;
- second bet (20$): I got BJ but the dealer also got BJ;
- third bet (20$): I got 13 and the dealer had an As. Odds were against me but I decided to not follow the optimal method. Players who took another card busted (it was a King). Finally, the dealer busted as well. Luckily I didn't follow the optimal method, it would have been the 5th time I would have lost because of it.

Total win for the session: 2.5$

It's just your game results, from your game session.


Like I could relate how I've lost more often at one specific private blackjack table blah blah....it doesn't prove anything or that the maths behind basic strategy wrong that show it to be the most optimal way to play with the smallest casino house edge (yes it exists!).


Anything in life which is not 100% a sure thing is subject to fluctuations in outcome (hence why we have probability distribution/Gaussian function/bell curves).

Totally agree with your message (even if I believe it follows the probability in this case).

The very first time I played blackjack, my strategy was to hit on 12 and 13 and stand on 14 and higher. Results, in 15 hands, I lost 10 times in a row because everytime the dealer busted, I busted because I didn't like a 12 or a 13...

Then, I watched... and notice only one thing was always true: no matter what, the dealer busts about 30% of the times and players rarely take advantage of this.

So, I elabored my strategy: instead of trying to beat the dealer when he is going to have 19 or 20 which is a lost cause, just make sure you win everytime he busts. It works by the maths, it works for me.

But yes, even if you had 99% chances to win, the probability to lose big always exist unfortunately.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ghost888

I hope their salary is good because, other the fact that online casino claims winning several billions dollars per month, so many people around the world are watching the Playtech dealers.

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I found out that they have a small salary... :( I hope they will get good tips!

Ak Dievs!..another off topic thread and split personage!..anyway DadAndrew et al,

Yes dealers in Latvia are paid much lower, compared with workers in many other countries, and this is compounded by deductions in take home salary for simple mistakes such as dropping a card, miss spins on roulette changing a dealer status/rank, and so on.

But it is a 'good' easy income for Latvia, albeit accommodation costs in Riga are high like many capital cities.

As I said earlier in this thread (if you actually read it) and elsewhere in the forums,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Unclefester

Playtech dealers also DON'T get their tips.

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Despite what some sites will tell you how great all the casino options are and that you can "even tip the dealers" :rolleyes:.


Of course there's no tip option for Evolution casinos et cetera, and nowadays more live tables/dealers are not in Latvia.